Verstappen's Dominant Win at São Paulo GP: Analysis

Max Verstappen took a stunning victory yesterday in a chaotic and wet São Paulo Grand Prix. I criticised Verstappen for his shenanigans in Austin and Mexico City, so it is only right that I praise him for such an impressively composed drive yesterday.

 

It would have been easy for Verstappen to lose his head again. A red flag at the end of the second qualifying session cost him the chance to improve into the top 10. Verstappen argued, perhaps validly, that the red flag had come later than most, meaning that other drivers were able to improve past him. That, combined with a 5-place grid penalty for engine part replacements, meant that Verstappen started 17th on the grid. 

 

There were only 14 cars ahead of Verstappen, however, when the cars finally set off from the start line. Williams’ mechanics were unable to make the required fixes to enable Alex Albon to take his seventh place on the grid. Conversely, Aston Martin were able to repair Lance Stroll’s car after his qualifying crash, only to see him park it in the sand on the formation lap. Thanks. He would have started tenth.

 

Stroll’s mishap caused chaos. The drivers were notified of Stroll’s incident – “start aborted” – but none of them seemed to know what that meant. Norris set off on a second formation lap and the others followed, only to find themselves the subject of a stewards’ investigation. Ultimately, there was no punishment, which was probably the right decision as none of the cars followed the regulations and remained stationary on the grid.

 

Confusion was the subject of the day. Lando Norris, in desperate need of another victory to reduce his Championship deficit, lost position to George Russell off the line. As the rain started to fall again, Norris closed the Gap to Russell but was unable to pass. “Box to overtake?” he asked his engineer. The team talked him down, explaining that he would emerge into traffic, only to comply with Norris’ request a few laps later. 

 

All the while, Verstappen crept closer. He picked off those in the midfield – Lewis Hamilton, Pierre Gasly, Fernando Alonso – with ease. Liam Lawson in the RB was happy to let Verstappen past in an unfashionable overtaking area, in contrast to the close racing he’s been enjoying with Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Perez. One wonders why. Alarm bells should have been ringing in the McLaren garage when Verstappen breezed past Oscar Piastri in the second McLaren. Piastri, who had been the fastest car on track on Saturday, naively left the door open into turn 1. Verstappen came from a long way back to pass him.

 

After Norris and Russell had pitted from the lead, the door was left open for those who had braved the worst of the weather on their first set of tyres. Esteban Ocon led the race, followed by Verstappen and Ocon’s Alpine teammate Gasly. Then the red flag came. Franco Colapinto had only just pitted for new tyres when he crashed on lap 33. Presumably his tyres had failed to get up to the adequate temperature. The red flag enabled Ocon, Verstappen, and Gasly to change their intermediate tyres without losing any time. 

 

Their boldness had paid off. Christian Horner has received a barrage of criticism in recent years – most of it deserved – but his team rarely make a tactical error. In that level of rain, a crash was almost inevitable. And even if it hadn’t occurred, the race director may have intervened to prevent one, such was the level of rainfall. Alpine, au contraire, had nothing to lose. After starting the day ninth in the Constructors’ Championship, they eventually came home second and third, securing a 33-point haul which moved them above Haas, RB, and Williams into sixth. Chapeau. 

 

After the restart, Verstappen was able to pass Ocon and drove off into the distance. Norris, on the other hand, went straight on into turn one, losing out to Charles Leclerc and teammate Oscar Piastri. Piastri would let him past, of course, but Leclerc was far less willing. Norris threatened for a lap or two before falling back, ending the race in sixth position and only 24 points ahead of Leclerc in the Championship. That might be his battle now.

 

Norris would later attribute Verstappen’s win to luck, rather than talent. Harsh. Verstappen had managed the wet conditions expertly, braking later than anyone into turn 1. He made overtaking manoeuvres when afforded the opportunity, but he also exercised patience when required. First, behind Leclerc in the first stint, and later behind Ocon after the red flag. Fundamentally, Verstappen coped with the conditions far better than anyone else. The margin of victory – 19.5 seconds – attests to that.

 

That victory all but ends the Drivers’ Championship battle. Verstappen leads by 62 points with a possible 86 remaining. Sometimes people say, ‘stranger things have happened’. I’m not sure they have.


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By Leon Parrott

Leon Parrott

email: leon@leonparrott.co.uk

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